German Election #3: How Germany’s vote could reshape the EU

Germany’s upcoming election isn’t just about who governs in Berlin – it’s about the direction Europe will take. On 23 February 2025, nearly 60 million German voters will head to the polls in snap elections following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's governing coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens (B90/Die Grünen), and the Liberals (FDP) in November 2024. A change of government appears likely, with the Conservatives (CDU/CSU) and their lead candidate for Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, poised to play a key role. Adding to the dynamic, a new party – a spin-off from the Left Party (BSW) – has already entered state-level coalitions and will be on the federal ballot. Polls suggest the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) will emerge as the strongest opposition party, though all other parties have ruled out coalition partnerships with it.

Regardless of the outcome, a shift in Germany’s political landscape is expected, with ripple effects across European and international affairs. This article explores how Germany’s political parties’ approach European policy.

Key takeaways from the party manifestos on European policy

1. Shared goals, divergent paths: All parties aim to boost European competitiveness and strengthen the EU economy, but they differ significantly on financing and the strategies to achieve these goals.
2. Institutional reform divides: While the SPD, Greens, CDU/CSU, and FDP advocate for a stronger, more efficient EU, the BSW pushes to reduce EU competences and decentralise power. The CDU/CSU and FDP also emphasise minimising EU bureaucracy and limiting the over-implementation of EU laws.

Adapting the EU to global challenges

As geopolitical tensions, climate change, and rapid digital transformation reshape the global landscape, the EU is striving to maintain its competitive edge. Inflation, energy crises, and supply chain disruptions have tested the resilience of the EU's internal market. At the same time, the green transition and digitalisation present both challenges and opportunities.

The new European Commission has made competitiveness its flagship priority, shifting focus from the Green Deal, which defined the previous term. Rising nationalist and far-right movements across Member States have increased the risk of institutional fragmentation. This trend, visible in the European Parliament following the 2024 elections, is driving more polarised debates and complicating consensus-building.

In response, EU leaders are prioritising economic resilience, technological innovation, and simplification of legislation – a push now supported by both Member States and the Commission. German party manifestos offer varied perspectives on how to navigate these challenges.

Split views on economy and competition policy

German parties share a commitment to enhancing European competitiveness and facilitating cross-border trade but propose different paths:

• The Greens support new EU funding mechanisms, joint bonds, and reforms to the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) within the Next Generation EU fund to prioritise infrastructure and climate-neutral growth. They also seek to reform state aid rules to support industrial decarbonisation.
• The FDP opposes EU-level debt instruments and any extension of the Next Generation EU fund.
• The SPD seeks MFF reforms to focus on policy areas with ‘recognisable European added value.’
• The CDU/CSU promotes market-based solutions, technological openness, and trust-building initiatives, advocating for projects like IPCEIs and the European Chips Act. They also support modernising competition and antitrust laws.
• The FDP favours comprehensive free trade agreements or sectoral trade agreements depending on the willingness of the partners and a refocus of cohesion policy on high-impact projects rather than regional redistribution.
• The SPD prioritises digital infrastructure to strengthen cross-border services and protect jobs, alongside a resilience strategy for critical industries.

Institutional reforms: balancing federalism and decentralisation

The German parties have various proposals for institutional reforms within the EU, reflecting differing visions of the union's future. While SPD, Greens, CDU/CSU, and FDP broadly support strengthening the EU’s institutional framework, the BSW takes a contrasting stance. 

SPD, Greens, and FDP advocate for abolishing the unanimity principle in favour of qualified majority voting and support granting the European Parliament the right to initiate legislation. The CDU/CSU doesn’t go as far, but supports institutional reforms aimed at boosting efficiency, including changes to working practices within EU institutions. The FDP calls for a reduction in the size of the European Commission to enhance decision-making efficiency. The SPD envisions an EU rooted in solidarity, whereas the Greens go even further and aspire to the creation of a federal European republic in the long term. Franco-German cooperation and the ‘Weimar Triangle’ are central to the SPD, Greens, and FDP’s vision for deepening European integration.

This blog post is part of our German Election Supercycle series.

Co-Authors:

Natalie Maier, Public Affairs Germany research assistant

Anna Lehnert, EU Regulatory and Public Affairs intern