How the newly unveiled structure could deliver Europe’s next 5-year political ambitions
The wait, at least for now, is finally over. Summer this year saw the trickling in of names for von der Leyen’s second College of Commissioners which was only completed and finalised on 30 August. Tensions were high as candidates were swapped out at the last moment in a bid to increase gender balance (a tactic directed mainly at smaller Member States), and a surprising exit of France’s candidate Thierry Breton only one day before the unveiling of the College. Now that the dust is beginning to settle, and we await the next phase (which will be led by the European Parliament in the form of public hearings) we have drawn some early conclusions and takeaways from the line-up.
The shifted balance of power within the College as compared with the past 5 years, reflecting the outcome of the June 2024 European elections is plain. While the EPP is still the largest political group within the College, this mandate will see the centre-right become even more influential given their gain of 5 new members (exactly the same number of members that the Socialist group has lost). Interestingly, despite the significant decrease in members within the hemicycle, the Renew Europe group has managed to maintain the same number of members within the College as in the past mandate. The Greens, which were key supporters of von der Leyen, allowing her re-appointment in July 2024, have no representation within the new College of Commissioners (compared with one Commissioner in the 2019-2024 mandate).
The final distribution
• EPP (14 members): Magnus Brunner (AT), Ekaterina Zaharieva (BU), Dubravka Šuica (HR), Jozef Sikela (CZ), Ursula von der Leyen (DE), Henna Virkkunen (FI), Apostolos Tzitzikostas (EL), Valdis Dombrovskis (LV), Andrius Kubilius (LT), Christophe Hansen (LU), Wopke Hoekstra (NL), Piotr Serafin (PL), Maria Luis Albuquerque (PT), Jessika Roswall (SE).
• S&D (5 members): Dan Jørgensen (DK), Teresa Ribera (ES), Glenn Micallef (MT), Roxana Minzatu (RO) and Maros Sefcovic (SK).
• Renew Europe (5 members): Hadja Lahbib (BE), Kaja Kallas (EE), Stéphane Séjourné (FR), Michael McGrath (IE) and Marta Kos (SI).
• Patriots for Europe (1 member): Oliver Varhelyi (HU).
• ECR (1 member): Raffaele Fitto (IT).
• Non-Attached (1 member): Costas Kadis (CY).
Another glaring difference with respect to the past 5 years is the lack of gender balance. Despite the fact that von der Leyen was able to up the proportion of women by nearly half to 40%, it still falls short of the gender parity that was initially conceived. It remains to be seen whether this is something the European Parliament will opine on, given its specific competence in this area granted by its own Rules of Procedure. Von der Leyen nevertheless has attempted to address this by appointing 4 out of the 6 Executive Vice President roles on offer, to women.
It is also worth noting that 21 of the candidates are in fact newcomers and just 5 Commissioners from the past mandate – and the President herself – have been re-nominated.
Deep-dive into the proposed structure
Turning to the structure of the Commission, von der Leyen has managed once again to balance geographical and political considerations including the size of Member States. What we see this time is a strengthened bench in terms of senior College members in the form of 6 Executive Vice-Presidents and no longer any Vice-Presidents. This is intended to create a ‘leaner’ executive in the words of von der Leyen, and one that will work more horizontally and in a spirit of cooperation and collaboration. The political priorities of this Commission are reflected in the titles of each of the Executive Vice-Presidents and a number of newly created portfolios address specific challenges for the upcoming cycle. These include dedicated portfolios on housing, defence and space, migration, the Mediterranean, intergenerational fairness as well as simplification and implementation.
The increased strategic importance of the Baltics in part due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has seen these Member States obtain strong portfolios such as two Executive Vice Presidents (Kaja Kallas from Estonia is the new High Representative and Henna Virkkunen has been handed Tech-Sovereignty, Security and Democracy). In addition, Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius is up for the role of the first-ever defense and space Commissioner.
One concern remains the potential for overlapping responsibilities and tensions to emerge between portfolios and individuals. The Executive Vice Presidents have sprawling responsibilities as well as each taking control of a Commission department, for example Spanish candidate Teresa Ribera who will lead on a Clean, Just and Competitive Transition will also take full responsibility for competition matters. Another obvious example is the Dutch candidate Wopke Hoekstra whose main role is to lead on Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, whilst also taking full responsibility for taxation policy.
One glaring omission appears to be the lack of a senior individual assigned to the economy. Whilst Italian nominee Raffaele Fitto was expected to lead a macro-economic portfolio, the structure announced does not foresee a catch-all and powerful economic position as anticipated. Instead, Fitto has been put forward as Executive Vice-President for Cohesion and Reforms. Whilst the title suggests a senior post that should please Italy’s Giorgia Meloni (who was unable to secure any top jobs for her right-leaning political family) on substance Fitto will not lead any of the most influential work streams. Conversely, the last-minute appointment of Stéphane Séjourné as Executive Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy, following the surprise resignation of Thierry Breton, assures France a significant portfolio - at least on paper. Whilst Séjourné will have a number of direct reports, he will control fewer Departments (DGs) than his predecessor.
Looking ahead
As for next steps, the JURI Committee of the European Parliament will check for conflicts of interest for each Commissioner-candidate, which will then be followed by hearings held by other Committees of the Parliament. These public hearings are expected to take place in November.
The entire College of Commissioners must be approved by the European Parliament. In the case that the Parliament is unsatisfied with a candidate, they can either reject the entire College or ask for changes in specific appointments.
The start of the new Commission depends on how smoothly the hearings go. We could expect a new Commission to be up and running by the beginning of December, but in the case of rejections by MEPs, the new Commission could be delayed until as late as January 2025.
