The 2025 German federal election, held on 23 February 2025, has changed the political landscape of Europe’s largest economy. The conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), led by Friedrich Merz, emerged as the victor, securing 28.5% of the vote. This marks a shift away from incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), who saw their worst performance in over a century, falling by 9.3% from the previous election to only 16.4%.
The 21st Bundestag: New majorities and fewer MPs
Following the recent reform of the election law in the now-ending legislature, the new German parliament (Bundestag) will comprise only 630 MPs (more than 100 seats less than the previous parliament). To enter into parliament, parties must either secure more than 5% of the votes or win at least three directly elected constituencies. The split-off of the left party Die Linke, the BSW (Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht), as well as the liberal FDP (Freie Demokratische Partei) failed to surpass this threshold.
With the CDU/CSU as the biggest parliamentary group with 208 seats, the right-wing AfD (Alternative for Germany) gained ground, capturing 20.5% of the vote and becoming the second-largest parliamentary group with 152 seats. The SPD is now only the third-largest parliamentary group with 120 seats. The ecological centre-left party, B90/Die Grünen, led by incumbent Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, suffered slight losses, especially to the left party Die Linke, and will now have 85 seats in parliament with 11.6% of the votes. Coming as the biggest surprise following steady polling below the 5% threshold, Die Linke re-emerged, garnering 8.7 % of votes, which equals 64 seats in parliament.
Forming a coalition between conservatives and centre-left
In line with Germany’s political tradition of forming stable coalition governments, a majority coalition is expected to be established. Despite its recent rise, the AfD will remain outside the government due to coalition exclusions from all other parties. The CDU/CSU is now tasked with forming a new government with the center-left parties.
A coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD – a so-called Grand Coalition – is the most likely option, a configuration that governed various times under Angela Merkel between 2005 and 2021. Despite a only narrow majority of this coalition of just 13 seats, B90/Die Grünen will not be included to attain an even larger majority. A two-party-coalition between CDU/CSU and B90/Die Grünen lacks the necessary majority to form a government. Similarly, a coalition comprising centre-left and left parties – specifically the SPD, B90/Die Grünen and Die Linke – is unfeasible as it does not have the requisite number of seats.
The road to a new government
Exploratory talks are commencing these days, with the aim of determining common ground for coalition negotiations. As CDU/CSU did not achieve the desired result and fell short of the 30% threshold, the Social Democrats may adopt a more assertive stance and establish clearer expectations for the negotiations to follow. While there are notable similarities between CDU/CSU and SPD on topics such as bureaucracy, digital transformation and infrastructure, significant differences remain, particularly regarding positions on taxation, labour law, social policy, energy, transport and EU policy. On 25 March, the first session of the new parliament will be held. Shortly after, coalition negotiations are expected to start, with the election of the Chancellor and appointment of federal ministers possible between late April and June.
Timeline
This blog post is part of our German Election Supercycle series.
Co-Author: Natalie Maier, Public Affairs Germany research assistant
